The Cook Political Report (h/t HotAir) gives us the lay of the land a short 11 months out. And it's not looking good for Nancy Pelosi. As Allahpundit explains, the number of "likely" Democrat House seats in 2010 is down to 218 - a bare majority. Quoting from the Report:
"But the biggest psychological driver of congressional retirements is the perception that the next election won’t be worth the personal/political/ego rewards of the 2010-2011 congressional cycle. It’s not so much that Democrats expect to be in the minority, although it is possible. It’s that Democrats of a certain type — John Tanner, Bart Gordon, Brian Baird — expect to be in a narrower, more liberal majority that forces them to take harder votes — a majority where the new Republicans elected from open district seats are suddenly invested with major bargaining powers."
In the meantime, the retiring Blue Dogs have every incentive to vote for Obamacare as they have nothing to lose at this point, as several commentators have already pointed out.
We live in interesting times.