Monday, November 2, 2009

Geraghty's Predictions - UPDATED

NRO's Jim Geraghty concedes that in some years he's very good, in others . . .  not so much.  But he always provides a solid analysis tied in to some decent insider's information.  The key prediction: New Jersey, of course:

"NJ Governor: Democrat Jon Corzine 44.6 percent, Republican Chris Christie 44.4 percent, Independent Chris Daggett 10 percent. This was the prediction you were waiting for, wasn’t it? It could very well go the other way; in fact, I can easily see Christie winning narrowly on Election Night. But then Corzine will dip into those absentee ballots where the signatures don’t match, and some friendly judge will rule that because of “dozens of people” on voting lines in Camden and Newark, polls have to be kept open until 3 a.m., and suddenly boxes of ballots from Republican precincts will go missing, etc. Many of my readers make compelling cases that the Democrats’ lack of enthusiasm will reduce their turnout to the point where the usual cheating can’t make up the difference, but I just can’t bring myself to believe that the Democrats will go quietly . New Jersey, as it is currently run, is Gotham City without Batman, and we know what happens to hard-charging prosecutors who try to clean up dirty systems. I believe in Chris Christie. I just don’t believe in the rule of law in New Jersey, or in the capacity of Chris Daggett’s supporters to realize that a guy polling at 10 percent isn’t going to do anything but split the anti-incumbent vote."

Read all of Geraghty's predictions here.

For what it's worth, my prediction for NJ has been similar for some time now: Christie narrowly wins on election night, but Corzine gets sworn-in in January.  Ah, New Jersey, home of the livingly-challenged.

More here on why I am skeptical that a close win for Christie on election night will translate into a final victory for him: absentee ballot fraud looms large.

More pre-election foul play here. Dems pay for pro-Daggett, anti-Christie messages through robo-calls.  Have you no shame?

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