Thursday, November 12, 2009

The Coming Commercial Real Estate Debacle

As someone who works in the commercial real estate area, I am compelled to agree with this negative assessment from William Mack of Mack-Cali:

Here's the latest doom and gloom on commercial real estate, courtesy of Mack-Cali Chair William Mack:

* The value of real estate from the top is down anywhere between 25% and 75% (or more);

* The hardest hit in the CRE "food chain" is raw land, after that hotels, office, retail and industrial. Least affected multi-family residential (don't tell Stuy town residents);

* The consumer confidence reflation propaganda machine will take a long time;

* The CRE crisis will hit a pinnacle when $500-700 billion of re-equitization becomes needed in a few years. Where that equity will come from is unknown as the US will need a lot of foreign investors to achieve this equity bubble reflation, and they are not there due to a foreigner-unfriendly investment regime.

The worst of the financial crisis may not be over yet.

Video link here.

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